Vice Chairman of the Hong Kong Stock Analysts Association-Kwok Sze-chi

After three consecutive days of gains, the market retreated slightly yesterday. The Hang Seng Index opened slightly lower by 5 points to 16334 points yesterday morning. Due to the deterioration of buying orders and the re-emergence of sporadic selling pressure, the entire market collapsed. It then repeatedly fell back to 16137 points before it gradually stabilized. From a technical point of view, although the market reversed slightly, the Hang Seng Index remained firmly above 16000 points for the time being, so the entire momentum of trying to reach the top has not changed. The top referred to is temporarily the high of 16408 points on the 7th of this month. As mentioned above, since the high and low of a month should not appear within three trading days at the same time, as long as the pattern of first low and then high remains unchanged , the market does have the opportunity to break through 16408 points first, and then seek new highs within the month, but the first condition is that the Hang Seng Index must continue to remain stable above the 50-day moving average (around 16141 points).

When it comes to moving lines, we should first pay attention to whether the Hang Seng Index can continue to hold on to the 50-day moving average (around 16141 points), the 10-day moving average (around 15921 points) and the 20-day moving average (around 15786 points). If the market wants to rebound further, the Hang Seng Index must continue to stay above the above three sets of average moving lines. As for the target for the market outlook, the first one should be the high of 16,408 points on the 7th of this month. Another upward target is the 100-day moving average (around 16813 points), but it should be pointed out that even if the market can rebound further, it will only be a technical retracement of the third phase of the bear market, so any speculative short-term speculation Deployment should not be done too hastily or too boldly, and risk management must also be done properly.

Among the stocks, China Mobile (941), CNOOC (883) and HSBC (005) are still more preferable, but they should only be absorbed in the mid-term.